Background: I arrive at a train station that I've never been to before, where I'm going to catch the next departure. I don't know anything about how often the trains go from this station, or when the next one will be. Now I consider which of these scenarios will make me happier:
Scenario A: The train departs every 10 minutes. When I get there, the previous train is just pulling out of the station, which means I will have to wait for 10 minutes.
Scenario B: The train departs once every hour. When I get there, the next one is scheduled to arrive in 12 minutes.
The contrast here is of course: Scenario B has a longer wait time, i.e. the value to me is strictly lower. However, Scenario B clearly feels luckier.
If I could press a button to land in either scenario, I would press B. The thought of Scenario A just pisses me off too much, whereas thinking about B feels like lowering myself into a hot bath. Am I stupid?
I think the source of my irrational instinct here is that in Scenario A, I immediately take the high frequency of the train service for granted, not realizing that I've actually been lucky with respect to the distribution of train services. It is also easy to imagine a peer who arrives just a minute earlier in Scenario A. In Scenario B, at least the unluckiness does not just affect me. Preferring B now seems pretty selfish of me. Perhaps this is a preference we should try to fight?
Are there any other situations that could provoke the same irrational decision, something that matters more?