When is it possible to predict the future?

In a world where the important data is widely available, it is possible to predict the future to the extent that change is limited by processes that are less smart than individual people. The proof is straightforward: if individuals are not operationally constrained by dumber processes than themselves, then they can create value by changing things using the available data. If however, individual freedom is constrained by dumb processes, then there might be a situation where everyone knows what the future will be like, yet no one has the power to change it. 

What processes are dumber than people? Evolution [1], top-down organisations where insights from low-level employees can't propagate up to management, markets with high thresholds to entrance. Such a world will seem to be changing slowly from day to day, even if a lot is changing over the years.

In a world with a very efficient market for starting companies, there is only a thin sliver of opportunities that are imaginable, but unexploited. Such a world will seem to be changing very fast from day to day, even if the fundamental values are not being improved much over the years. 

What has been said: 'dumb' change is more predictable than 'smart' change. However, if we want to tell whether things are improving, we should just look at what is happening to the things that we care about, rather than trying to gauge it based on how fast the world seems to be changing.

[1] Is outsmarted by e.g. selective breeding.